Survive Turn One and You Will Probably Finish

September 7, 2026

This one starts with statistics rather than strategy. We counted where people who start a game on this site stop, and the answer pointed at one screen.

The first turn is the hardest turn

First-time visitors over the five weeks to September 7, 2026. Operator accounts excluded.

Once someone is in turn 2 they mostly go the distance. In a game whose median length is 17 minutes, the first few minutes decide the rest. And when the 37 turn-one stops are split by screen, 65% were on the share screen. Not the auction, not building. The very first click of the game.

How finishers make the first decision

In a first game a guide card appears at each step. Measuring from the moment the share card appears to the moment the next step begins, decisions that led to a finished game took a median of 27 seconds (61 players; half fell between 16 and 66 seconds). Read the card, look at three numbers, click.

What they click is just as lopsided. Across 346 recorded games and 1,320 turn-one issues, 67% were 2 shares (AI seats included). Among human finishers alone it is 64%. The arithmetic behind that number is in How Many Shares Should You Issue. The short version: $10 starting cash plus 2 shares ($10) covers turn-one track and the auction.

Getting through turn one

1. Shares: issue 2. In a first game, press the button with the Suggested badge. One share is +$5 now, $1 per turn, −3 VP at the end. You do not need to compute more than those three numbers yet.
2. Auction: do not overreach. The first drop costs nothing. If cash is tight, bid the minimum or drop. A late seat only hurts when the good actions get taken first.
3. Action: pick from what is left. No first-game action choice ruins the game. If Locomotive or First Build is still there, either is a safe pick.
4. Build: only what you can extend next turn. Start from a city and lay 2–3 tiles toward the next one. One delivery lifts your income track, and from turn 2 the cash starts to take care of itself.

Clear those four and the statistics are on your side. Three out of four players who enter turn 2 finish the game.

What changed on this site

Based on these numbers, the turn-one share screen in a first game now carries a Suggested badge. Six identical buttons became one highlighted 2-share button, and the guide card points at it. The badge only shows while the first-game guide is on; turn the guide off and the screen is back to normal. We will measure the effect the same way in four weeks.

All figures in this article come from visitor telemetry on this site (new visitors from August 1 to September 7, 2026, operator accounts excluded). The turn-one issue distribution combines human and AI seats across 346 recorded games; the 64% finisher figure is from 239 completed games. They describe play on this implementation, not the physical game.

Try it yourself

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